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From Hobby to High Stakes: The Financialization of Trading Cards, Emerging Behavioral Risks, and the Role of Threat Assessment in Prevention

Writer: M.A. Tlbt
M.A. Tlbt
Oct 26
31 min read

By Matt Talbot, PhD, LCSW, CTM

Co-Founder/Principal Consultant, Key Operational Insights, LLC

 

24 October 2026

 

What happens when a childhood hobby becomes a marketplace where individual pieces of cardboard can command millions of dollars? Beyond the extraordinary valuations and investment opportunities lies a less-examined intersection of human behavior, financial expectations, perceived grievances, and organizational vulnerability. Drawing on personal experience as a trading card collector and professional expertise in behavioral threat assessment and violence prevention, this article examines the evolving trading-card marketplace, the risks accompanying its financialization, and the implications for organizations responsible for protecting people, assets, and operations.

 

From Childhood Heroes to Financial Assets

Some of my most cherished childhood memories revolve around trading cards and professional sports, particularly baseball. Growing up just outside Boston, I had the privilege of spending much of my childhood at Fenway Park, where baseball became more than simply a game. It was a passion, an escape, and a place where childhood dreams seemed almost within reach. Even the heartbreak of watching the Boston Red Sox lose to the New York Mets in the 1986 World Series, one of my earliest baseball memories, could not diminish that love. The disappointment would linger until the curse was finally broken in 2004, but my devotion to the game never wavered.

 


I can still vividly recall the feeling of being a seven- or eight-year-old boy, standing along the short wall bordering the first-base box seats at Fenway Park, armed with 1986 Topps baseball cards and pristine baseballs, anxiously hoping to capture the signatures of men who, to me, were nothing short of superheroes. These weren't simply professional athletes; they represented possibility, embodying the dreams of a young boy who imagined one day stepping onto a Major League diamond as a third baseman himself. Perhaps that is why one particular memory remains so extraordinarily vivid. Standing at that short infield wall, the physical boundary separating an ordinary young boy from the larger-than-life figures he admired, I looked up to see Red Sox Hall of Fame third baseman Wade Boggs walking in my direction. Even today, nearly four decades later, I can summon that moment with remarkable clarity: the crisp New England air of an early-season afternoon, the baseball in my hand, the nervous anticipation, and the rush of adrenaline as one of my childhood heroes approached. I still have that baseball bearing Wade Boggs' signature, and whenever I look at it, I don't think about what it might be worth. I remember what it felt like to be that little boy.

 

In the small suburban town where I grew up, there were two sports-card shops I frequented: Out of the Park Sports Cards and Triple Play Sports Cards. Even their names evoke a sense of nostalgia that is difficult to put into words. It was a different time, when children disappeared into their neighborhoods on bicycles, returning home when the streetlights came on, and our days were filled with imaginative adventures, games of cops and robbers, and fiercely competitive home run derbies in the quaint cul-de-sac where I lived. The front steps of my childhood home served as our makeshift catcher and backstop, while the fire chief's front yard was our home run target. The competition was almost always the same: I was Frank Thomas, the Chicago White Sox Hall of Famer affectionately known as "The Big Hurt" and my all-time favorite player, while my best friend assumed the role of Ken Griffey Jr., with his effortless swing and seemingly superhuman athleticism. We weren't playing for contracts, endorsements, or financial gain. We were playing because, for a few hours, we could become the athletes we admired.

 

When those games finally ended, we would climb onto our bikes and pedal the mile or so to one, and sometimes both, of our beloved neighborhood card shops. We raced along the winding roads of Cottage Street, occasionally stopping for ice cream or visiting Lucy’s penny candy store, which she operated out of the first floor of her home. Those little detours were part of the adventure, but our real destination was always the same: the shelves lined with wax and foil packs, each holding the possibility of discovering something extraordinary. With whatever allowance, birthday money, or spare change we had managed to accumulate, we would eagerly tear into packs in pursuit of our childhood heroes. There were the 1987 Topps packs in which we hoped to find a Mark McGwire rookie card, the 1992–93 Fleer Ultra packs that offered the tantalizing possibility of a Shaquille O’Neal rookie, and, perhaps most importantly to me, the 1992 Donruss packs containing the extraordinarily elusive Frank Thomas Elite insert. That card was my holy grail. I could picture its distinctive, shimmering border and imagine the moment I might finally pull it from a pack. Countless afternoons were spent chasing that possibility, sustained by the simple belief that the very next pack might be the one. Looking back, the anticipation was every bit as meaningful as the cards themselves.



Then, one afternoon at Out of the Park Sports Cards, something extraordinary happened. I had purchased a few packs of 1992 Donruss and began anxiously sorting through the cards, surrounded by that distinctive smell of freshly opened cardboard, one of those peculiar sensory memories that somehow survives the passage of decades. As I shuffled through a pack, I noticed a glimmer of gold peeking out from the middle of the stack, the unmistakable shimmering border of a Donruss Elite card. My heart raced as I slowly slid each card away, one after another, prolonging the anticipation as excitement and nervousness collided. When the card was finally revealed, it wasn't Frank Thomas, but Ken Griffey Jr., one of the greatest players and purest hitters the game had ever seen. I had pulled an Elite card, a discovery that earned me a coveted place on the Out of the Park Sports Cards Hall of Fame wall, where my photograph was proudly displayed. That card remains in a display case in my office to this day, a tangible reminder of an afternoon I will never forget.

 

As remarkable as that moment was, an even more meaningful memory was waiting just around the corner. Later that year, for my birthday, my mother surprised me with an entire box of 1992 Donruss baseball cards. To a young collector, an unopened box was almost magical, with dozens of packs holding the possibility of discovering something extraordinary. But the hobby meant more to me than the cards themselves. It was something my mother and I shared, a perpetual scavenger hunt and a reason to visit card shops, attend shows, search for missing cards, and celebrate the occasional extraordinary discovery together. It was our thing, and those experiences created a connection that has endured long after the cards themselves were tucked away.

 

I can still picture myself sitting at the end of our kitchen table, the unopened box staring back at me, roughly thirty packs of possibility waiting to be explored. One by one, I tore them open, surrounded by the familiar rustle of wrappers, the smell of fresh cardboard, and the anticipation of each new card. Stars emerged and familiar faces appeared, but the one card I wanted most remained elusive. Eventually, I reached the final pack, still without finding the Frank Thomas Elite. As I lifted that last pack from the box, however, I noticed something beneath it. There, tucked carefully at the bottom, was a protective card holder containing the very card I had spent so much time dreaming about. My mother had somehow found one and placed it there for me to discover, creating a moment that remains among my most treasured childhood memories.

 


At the time, I suspect she spent somewhere between $200 and $300 to purchase that card. Today, in 2026, its approximate market value may be only a fraction of what she paid, but that card has never been more valuable to me than it is now. When I look at it, I don't see a depreciating asset. I see my mother and the sacrifices parents make, sometimes quietly and without recognition, simply to bring happiness to their children. I remember the kitchen table where we opened packs together, the card shows we attended, the bike rides to Triple Play and Out of the Park, and the imaginary home run derbies in our cul-de-sac. I remember Frank "The Big Hurt" Thomas, the athlete I admired and tried so desperately to emulate on the Little League diamond, and a childhood made immeasurably richer by something as simple as a piece of cardboard. That Frank Thomas Elite card is not the most monetarily valuable card in my childhood collection, but it may be the most meaningful possession among them, because its worth was never determined by what someone else would pay for it. Its worth was determined by everything it allowed me to remember.

 

That distinction between financial value and personal meaning is central to understanding how the trading-card industry has evolved. The cards I collected as a child were never entirely disconnected from money, but their significance was rooted primarily in the experiences, relationships, and aspirations they represented. Today, those same emotional attachments increasingly coexist with an extraordinarily sophisticated financial marketplace, one in which a collector's relationship with a card may be influenced as much by its investment potential as by the memories it creates. Understanding that shift is important not simply because it changes the economics of collecting, but because it can also change the motivations, expectations, and behaviors surrounding it.

 

When the Meaning of Collecting Changes

The world has changed considerably since those childhood afternoons. The freedom we experienced riding bicycles through our neighborhoods, exploring independently, and remaining outside until the streetlights came on can feel increasingly distant in a world where concerns about safety and security occupy so much of our attention. The hobby I once loved has changed, too, although the cards themselves may look familiar and the excitement of discovering a favorite player remains much the same. Children still dream of becoming the athletes pictured on those cards, and parents still create memories with their children through collecting, just as my mother did with me. Yet the marketplace surrounding those small pieces of cardboard has undergone a remarkable transformation.

 

Where we once chased complete sets and favorite players, today's collectors may chase population reports, grading scores, market indexes, and investment returns. Where a card once represented the athlete we dreamed of becoming, it may now represent an asset whose value rises and falls with performance, speculation, and market sentiment. The financial dimension of collecting is not new; even during my childhood, price guides, card shops, and speculative buying were part of the hobby. What has changed is the scale, accessibility, and sophistication of today's collectibles market, transforming not only how cards are valued and exchanged, but perhaps more importantly, how they are perceived.

 

With that transformation have come consequences extending well beyond the hobby itself. When a small piece of cardboard can represent tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or even millions of dollars, it becomes more than a collectible. It becomes a commodity, an investment, a potential source of substantial financial loss, and an increasingly attractive target for criminal activity. The emotional attachment that once made collecting so personally meaningful now exists alongside financial pressures, competitive markets, and economic incentives that can fundamentally alter the behaviors surrounding the hobby.

 

For those of us working in Behavioral Threat Assessment and Management (BTAM), this evolution raises questions worth exploring. How does the transformation of a nostalgic hobby into a speculative financial marketplace influence human motivation and behavior? What happens when financial expectations become intertwined with identity, perceived success, and personal security? How might substantial financial losses contribute to grievances, desperation, or hostility toward those perceived as responsible? And how should organizations prepare for emerging risks involving theft, intimidation, harassment, and potentially targeted violence?

 

The question is no longer simply what these cards are worth, but what their changing value means for the people who collect them, invest in them, and, increasingly, seek to take them from others.

 

From Passion to Profit: The Psychology of Intrinsic and Extrinsic Motivation

At its core, collecting has always been a deeply human activity. Whether collecting baseball cards, coins, stamps, or other memorabilia, people often develop meaningful connections to the objects they acquire. Collections can represent personal identity, nostalgia, achievement, belonging, and relationships with others who share similar interests. Understanding why people collect requires examining two fundamental psychological concepts: intrinsic and extrinsic motivation.

 

Intrinsic motivation refers to engaging in an activity because the activity itself is enjoyable, interesting, or personally rewarding. For many children collecting sports cards in the 1980s and 1990s, motivation was largely intrinsic. Satisfaction came from completing a set, finding a favorite player, trading with friends, or simply enjoying the anticipation of opening a new pack. The reward was emotional, social, and deeply personal.

 

Extrinsic motivation, by contrast, involves engaging in an activity to obtain a reward or outcome separate from the activity itself. In today's trading-card marketplace, financial returns, investment performance, resale opportunities, and social recognition can become powerful external incentives. A collector may purchase a rookie card not because of an emotional connection to the athlete, but because of an expectation that the player's future performance will increase the card's market value. Importantly, these motivations are not mutually exclusive. A lifelong collector may genuinely admire an athlete while simultaneously recognizing the financial potential of owning that player's cards.

 

Self-Determination Theory provides a useful framework for understanding these motivational differences. Research by Ryan and Deci (2000) examines how autonomy, competence, and relatedness contribute to human motivation and how external rewards and pressures can influence the experience of activities previously pursued for their inherent enjoyment. Financial rewards do not automatically diminish intrinsic motivation. Nevertheless, when external financial expectations become increasingly influential, the meaning and experience of an activity may change.

 

Other psychological mechanisms also deserve consideration. Loss aversion, a central concept in Prospect Theory developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, describes how losses can carry greater psychological weight than equivalent gains. Scarcity can influence perceived desirability, while social comparison and fear of missing out may intensify competition for limited or highly publicized collectibles (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). These processes become especially relevant when the emotional meaning of a collection becomes intertwined with its financial valuation.

 

A collector who purchases a card because of a personal connection to an athlete may experience declining market value differently from someone who purchased the same card primarily as an investment. For the latter, declining prices may represent a financial setback, a failed opportunity, or even a perceived threat to future financial security.

 

From a BTAM perspective, however, an important distinction must be maintained. Financial motivation, emotional attachment, competitive behavior, and significant financial loss are not, independently, indicators of violence or criminal intent. Their relevance emerges when these experiences intersect with observable concerning behaviors, identifiable grievances, threats, or actions suggesting preparation for harm.

 

For businesses operating within this environment, these psychological considerations have practical implications. A transaction that appears routine to an organization may carry substantial emotional or financial significance for the individual involved. A disputed grade, unsuccessful auction, perceived misrepresentation, or declining investment may be experienced not simply as an unfavorable commercial outcome, but as a deeply personal setback. This does not make the individual dangerous, nor does it suggest that ordinary consumer disputes require behavioral threat assessment. It does, however, reinforce the importance of organizational processes capable of recognizing when dissatisfaction progresses beyond legitimate disagreement into identifiable patterns of harassment, intimidation, threats, or other concerning behaviors.

 

When Value Creates Opportunity: An Emerging Criminal Threat Environment

The transformation of trading cards into high-value financial assets has consequences extending beyond the motivations of collectors. Perhaps more consequential from a safety and security perspective is how the extraordinary financial value associated with certain cards has changed the incentives of individuals who may have little interest in collecting at all. Cards can be compact, portable, highly valuable, and readily exchanged through established marketplaces. Their publicly reported valuations may also help offenders recognize attractive targets. Recent incidents demonstrate how these characteristics can create significant security vulnerabilities.

 

On October 13, 2026, trading cards with an initial estimated value of approximately $963,000 were stolen from a FedEx truck near Professional Sports Authenticator's (PSA) facility in Santa Ana, California. According to police reporting, two pallets were stolen and a third was disturbed. The merchandise included sports and Pokémon cards belonging to customers who had submitted collectibles for authentication and grading. The incident also revealed consequences extending beyond financial loss. One affected collector described losing cards accumulated over years, including rare items that could not simply be replaced. PSA subsequently reported working with law enforcement, deactivating certifications associated with stolen cards, and coordinating with marketplace partners to identify affected merchandise (Associated Press, October 20, 2026; PSA, October 23, 2026).

 

For readers unfamiliar with the contemporary trading-card industry, the notion that a shipment of sports and Pokémon cards could approach $1 million in value may seem almost inconceivable. After all, these are small pieces of cardboard, not unlike those many of us purchased for a few dollars per pack during childhood. Yet the modern collectibles marketplace has evolved into an industry where rarity, historical significance, condition, authentication, and investor demand can elevate the value of a single card into the millions, and occasionally tens of millions, of dollars.

 


Consider the legendary 1909–1911 T206 Honus Wagner baseball card, widely regarded as one of the most coveted collectibles in existence. In 2021, one example sold for approximately $6.6 million, while another commanded $7.25 million in a private transaction the following year. Perhaps even more remarkable is the example owned by Ken Kendrick, managing general partner of the Arizona Diamondbacks, who purchased the famous "Gretzky Wagner" for $2.8 million in 2007, with some collectors speculating a potential value of many millions more in 2026. Kendrick's collection extends well beyond Wagner, encompassing extraordinary examples featuring Babe Ruth, Jackie Robinson, Mickey Mantle, and numerous other baseball legends. His collection illustrates how the hobby has evolved into a marketplace where historically significant cards are treated as museum-quality assets, with values that may far exceed their original purchase prices.

 

The financial stakes are equally extraordinary in modern sports. In August 2025, a one-of-one 2007–08 Upper Deck Exquisite Collection card featuring Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, complete with both athletes' autographs and NBA logo patches from game-worn jerseys, sold through Heritage Auctions for $12.932 million. The purchase was made by an investment group that included Kevin O'Leary, widely recognized as "Mr. Wonderful" from Shark Tank. O'Leary has publicly discussed viewing exceptionally rare collectibles as an alternative asset class, comparable in some respects to fine art and other scarce investments. His involvement reflects an important shift: trading cards are no longer purchased exclusively by enthusiasts seeking a connection to their favorite athletes, but increasingly by investors seeking ownership of scarce assets with the potential for substantial financial appreciation.

 

Other transactions reinforce the extraordinary scale of this marketplace, with certain trading cards now commanding prices comparable to rare works of fine art, prestigious luxury timepieces, and some of the world's most exclusive automobiles. A 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle sold for $12.6 million in 2022, an amount sufficient to purchase several Bugatti hypercars or a remarkable collection of Patek Philippe and Rolex watches. Perhaps more revealing of the speculative risks associated with investing in emerging athletes was the September 2026 sale of a one-of-one Cooper Flagg Topps Chrome NBA Debut Patch Autograph, which commanded an astonishing $8.04 million. At just 19 years old and entering his second NBA season, Flagg had already generated a collectible valuation exceeding that of many established legends whose careers and historical significance were cemented decades earlier. Unlike an investment in a historically significant card featuring a retired Hall of Famer, the future value of a young athlete's collectibles may depend heavily on expectations surrounding an unfinished career. Injuries, inconsistent performance, shifting public perception, or unmet expectations could substantially influence demand and perceived value. This introduces an intriguing intersection between investing and gambling, where substantial financial commitments are effectively wagers on an athlete's uncertain future.

 

Although purchasing trading cards is not inherently gambling, the speculative dynamics can create similar financial and psychological vulnerabilities when anticipated gains fail to materialize. Beyond sports, a PSA 10 Pikachu Illustrator Pokémon card sold for approximately $16.5 million in February 2026, a price approaching the $17.8 million achieved by Paul Newman's legendary Rolex Daytona at auction in 2017. These comparisons illustrate a remarkable transformation: collectibles once associated with childhood recreation are now competing for investment capital in markets traditionally occupied by fine art, rare automobiles, and historically significant luxury assets.

 

Although these transactions represent the uppermost tier of the collectibles market and should not be mistaken for typical card values or evidence of guaranteed appreciation, they provide important perspective on the capital now circulating throughout the industry. From a security standpoint, an object small enough to fit inside a wallet or protective plastic holder may represent the equivalent of a luxury home, a substantial investment portfolio, or years of accumulated wealth. Unlike many traditional high-value assets, these collectibles routinely move between private residences, retail shops, conventions, shipping facilities, and temporary storage locations. When extraordinary financial value can be transported in a backpack, displayed on a folding table, or shipped in an ordinary cardboard box, the opportunities for theft, fraud, and exploitation become considerably more apparent.

 

The Santa Ana theft is not an isolated example. In July 2024, a dealer reported the theft of approximately $2 million in vintage baseball cards during the Dallas Card Show in Allen, Texas. Reporting described surveillance footage that appeared to show individuals observing the venue and using a distraction to facilitate the theft (Axios Dallas, July 15, 2024). The incident underscores the vulnerability of temporary exhibition environments, where valuable merchandise, substantial crowds, and competing demands on exhibitors' attention may create opportunities for coordinated theft.

Earlier that year, a shipment of 54 vintage baseball cards valued at approximately $2.12 million disappeared from a hotel in Strongsville, Ohio, where the cards had been delivered for an event. The Cuyahoga County Prosecutor's Office subsequently reported that two individuals pleaded guilty in connection with the theft. Investigators recovered 52 of the 54 cards (Cuyahoga County Prosecutor's Office, October 3, 2024). Like the Santa Ana incident, the Strongsville theft illustrates how the movement and temporary storage of valuable collectibles can expose vulnerabilities beyond the traditional retail environment.

 

More concerning from a personal safety perspective were two armed robberies of Pokémon trading-card stores in New York City in January 2026. According to a May 28, 2026, announcement from the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York, federal prosecutors charged an individual in connection with robberies involving more than $100,000 in stolen Pokémon merchandise. The criminal complaint alleged that the defendant helped plan the offenses through surveillance, identification of valuable cards, communication with accomplices, and participation in the robberies. Employees and customers were reportedly threatened with firearms. These allegations remain subject to the presumption of innocence.

 

Collectively, these incidents illustrate several distinct concerns: vulnerabilities in shipping and logistics, theft during public events, possible exploitation of access to valuable merchandise, and criminal conduct involving weapons and threats to human life. The extraordinary prices achieved by select collectibles help explain why such opportunities may be attractive to offenders, but the underlying risks extend beyond financial loss. For collectors, the theft of a prized card may represent the loss of an irreplaceable connection to personal history. For businesses, it may threaten financial stability, customer confidence, and reputation. For employees, customers, and others who encounter offenders willing to use intimidation or force, the consequences may involve direct threats to personal safety.

 

These incidents do not, by themselves, establish that trading-card theft is increasing nationally, nor should coordinated property crimes automatically be interpreted as evidence of grievance-driven targeted violence. Such conclusions would require additional evidence, including reliable longitudinal crime data and case-specific behavioral information. Nevertheless, the incidents demonstrate how concentrated financial value can intersect with operational vulnerabilities, criminal opportunity, and threats to personal safety. For organizations navigating these risks, the distinction between physical security, criminal investigation, fraud prevention, and behavioral threat assessment is consequential. Each serves a different purpose, and effective prevention requires understanding when these functions should operate independently and when coordinated intervention is necessary. A defensible organizational response depends not simply on recognizing that a concern exists, but on accurately defining its nature, identifying the feared outcome, and engaging the appropriate expertise and resources to address it.

 

Looking Beyond the Cards: A BTAM Perspective on Emerging Risk

The trading-card industry's evolving marketplace presents an opportunity to apply established prevention principles in a less conventional setting. However, BTAM should not be viewed as a substitute for traditional physical security, criminal investigation, fraud prevention, or enterprise risk management. Rather, it provides a complementary approach to recognizing, assessing, and managing concerning behaviors that may indicate a potential for targeted harm.

 

The starting point is defining the feared outcome. Are we concerned about opportunistic theft, organized robbery, fraud, threats against employees, escalating harassment, or violence directed toward a particular individual? Each presents different considerations, and each may require different interventions. An organized group coordinating the theft of merchandise may warrant investigative and security responses. An individual repeatedly threatening a grading-company employee following a disputed assessment may warrant multidisciplinary behavioral assessment. This concern becomes more understandable when considering the increasingly consequential role of third-party grading companies, such as PSA, in establishing market confidence and influencing the financial value of collectibles. Although grading companies employ published standards, the evaluation of centering, corners, edges, surface condition, and other characteristics necessarily involves professional judgment. For collectors who believe they possess a potentially valuable card, the difference between an anticipated grade and the grade ultimately assigned may represent far more than disappointment; it may be perceived as the loss of substantial potential wealth.

 


Consider the iconic 1986–87 Fleer Michael Jordan rookie card. During Goldin's October 2026 auctions, a PSA Gem Mint 10 example reportedly sold for $396,500, while a PSA Mint 9 example sold for $52,460. Although these were separate cards, and their auction results cannot establish the value of any particular ungraded example, the $344,040 difference illustrates the extraordinary financial premium that may accompany a single point on a ten-point grading scale. In practical terms, a collector anticipating a perfect grade might perceive receiving a nine as the difference between a life-changing financial windfall and a substantially smaller return. Such expectations can be especially consequential when individuals have already committed significant financial resources or incorporated anticipated profits into their personal financial plans.

 

The financial relationship between collectors and grading companies introduces another potential source of frustration. PSA and comparable services generally assess fees according to service levels and declared or insured card values, with premium services for exceptionally valuable cards extending into thousands of dollars per submission. PSA may also require additional payment when the assessed value exceeds the maximum value permitted under the originally selected service level. While these charges reflect published service structures and the costs associated with handling and insuring valuable merchandise, collectors may interpret unexpected fees, lengthy processing times, disappointing grades, or disputed evaluations as unfair treatment, particularly when they believe the outcome has materially affected their financial position.

 

These circumstances do not suggest that grading disputes commonly result in threats or violence, nor that dissatisfaction with a grading company is inherently suspicious. Most collectors experiencing an unfavorable outcome will express disappointment, pursue available review processes, or simply accept the result. However, when financial disappointment evolves into persistent accusations of intentional wrongdoing, personalized blame toward identifiable employees, escalating hostility, threatening communications, or other concerning behaviors, the situation may warrant a more structured assessment. Conversely, a collector experiencing financial hardship without threatening conduct may benefit from supportive resources, transparent dispute-resolution mechanisms, and financial guidance rather than a security-oriented intervention. The feared outcome should guide information development, assessment, and management decisions, ensuring that interventions respond to observable behavior and credible concerns rather than financial distress or dissatisfaction alone.

 

One of BTAM's most important contributions is its emphasis on observable behavior and context rather than assumptions about personality, appearance, financial circumstances, or presumed intent. Within the trading-card industry, relevant concerns might include escalating threats arising from disputed transactions, repeated harassment directed toward identifiable individuals, attempts to intimidate employees, communications suggesting retaliation, or behavior indicating planning and preparation for harm. Target-focused attention, evidence of surveillance, boundary violations, and increasingly specific threats may warrant additional inquiry when considered within the totality of available information. But these observations must be interpreted carefully. A collector who asks detailed questions about inventory, repeatedly visits a retailer, or closely monitors card prices may be engaging in entirely legitimate behavior. Similarly, anger over a disappointing grading decision or financial loss does not independently establish a threat.

 

The objective is not to identify suspicious people. It is to recognize concerning patterns, develop relevant information, and determine whether an individual's behavior indicates a plausible movement toward an identified harmful outcome. Equally important is examining protective and stabilizing factors, including meaningful relationships, willingness to resolve disputes, future-oriented goals, effective boundaries, and other circumstances that may discourage harmful conduct.

 

Consider how these principles might apply to a grading company receiving increasingly hostile communications from a collector who believes an unfavorable evaluation deprived them of substantial financial gain. Customer service personnel may initially interpret the matter as a routine dispute, while security personnel may become involved only after a direct threat is communicated. Yet relevant information may emerge well before that point, including repeated attempts to identify or contact individual graders, escalating accusations of intentional wrongdoing, or communications suggesting retaliation. A structured organizational process can help ensure that such information is appropriately recognized, documented, and evaluated in context, rather than remaining isolated within separate departments. Depending on the circumstances, the appropriate response may involve transparent dispute resolution, communication boundaries, employee safety measures, supportive engagement, or multidisciplinary behavioral threat assessment. The objective is not to criminalize dissatisfaction, but to ensure that organizations possess the capacity to distinguish legitimate grievances from behaviors warranting additional attention and proportionate intervention.

 

When the Market Turns: Financial Instability and the Potential for Grievance

The financialization of trading cards presents another important prevention consideration: What happens when the market declines?

 

For collectors who remember the late 1980s and early 1990s, volatility is nothing new. The period commonly described as the “junk wax era” involved widespread production, speculative demand, and an eventual recognition that many mass-produced cards possessed far less financial value than collectors anticipated. More recently, the industry experienced a significant correction following the pandemic-era collecting boom. Research published by Altan Insights in its 2023 sports collectibles market report documented a 10.3% decline in the Card Ladder CL50 index during 2023, alongside declines of 28.3% in its high-end index and 21.4% in its low-end index. These figures reflect specific tracked market segments rather than every collectible, but they demonstrate that substantial market corrections are not merely hypothetical.


For collectors who regard their cards primarily as treasured possessions, declining values may have limited personal consequences. For individuals who have invested significant financial resources with expectations of appreciation, however, losses may carry very different meanings. Financial strain can intersect with debt, strained relationships, perceived failure, reduced financial security, and diminished coping resources. Research into targeted violence has repeatedly identified significant life stressors, including financial difficulties, as relevant contextual considerations. The U.S. Secret Service National Threat Assessment Center's Mass Attacks in Public Spaces: 2016–2020 examined 173 attacks involving 180 attackers. The report documented the importance of examining stressors, grievances, and concerning behaviors within the broader circumstances preceding attacks.


These retrospective findings must be interpreted appropriately. They do not establish that financial hardship causes targeted violence or that people experiencing financial losses are likely to become violent. Rather, they reinforce the importance of evaluating financial stress alongside other relevant behavioral and situational information. For the trading-card industry, the distinction is particularly meaningful. A significant market correction could create financial pressures for collectors, dealers, retailers, and others whose livelihoods or financial expectations are tied to collectible values. Most individuals will respond through ordinary financial adjustments, disappointment, or efforts to recover losses. Others may experience significant distress or develop grievances involving those they perceive as responsible.


For BTAM practitioners, the significance of financial loss lies not in the loss itself, but in how an individual interprets the experience, attributes responsibility, and subsequently behaves. This distinction becomes particularly important when disappointment begins evolving into a perceived injustice directed toward an identifiable person or organization.


From Financial Loss to Perceived Injustice

Financial losses may be attributed to a variety of identifiable parties. A collector may blame a manufacturer for overproduction, a dealer for allegedly misleading a buyer, a grading company for an unfavorable evaluation, or an online influencer for promoting speculative purchases. Some grievances may involve legitimate misconduct or consumer harm. Others may arise from misunderstandings, unrealistic expectations, or an inability to accept the uncertainty of speculative markets. The presence of a grievance does not establish dangerousness. Its significance becomes greater when an individual develops persistent hostility toward an identifiable target, communicates threats, attempts to intimidate or confront that target, or engages in behaviors suggesting preparation for retaliation.


The development and persistence of a grievance may also be influenced by perceived humiliation, entitlement, social isolation, deteriorating support systems, and other destabilizing circumstances. These factors should not be interpreted in isolation or treated as a predictable progression toward violence. Rather, their relevance emerges through an individualized examination of how a person understands the perceived injustice, responds to setbacks, interacts with the identified target, and behaves over time. Of particular importance is whether the grievance becomes increasingly personalized and accompanied by observable behaviors suggesting fixation, intimidation, escalation, or preparation for harm.


Could Athletes Become Targets of Financially Motivated Grievances?

One of the more provocative questions arising from the investment-oriented trading-card marketplace concerns the athletes themselves. Historically, collectors often admired athletes because of their performance, accomplishments, or personal significance. As with my shared experience, their cards represented that admiration. Today, an athlete's performance may also influence the financial expectations of individuals holding valuable cards associated with that player.


Consider a hypothetical investor who purchases several high-value rookie cards of a promising professional athlete. The investor anticipates that continued athletic success will increase demand and market value. Instead, the athlete suffers an injury, performs below expectations, or fails to achieve the anticipated professional success. Demand declines, and the investor experiences substantial financial losses. For most individuals, this would represent an unfortunate consequence of speculation. Yet it is reasonable to consider whether a small subset of individuals might begin personalizing those losses, attributing responsibility to the athlete rather than recognizing the inherent uncertainty of the investment. Could an athlete become the focus of resentment, harassment, intimidation, or threats?


The possibility remains hypothetical, and available evidence does not establish a pattern of targeted violence against athletes arising from trading-card investment losses. Nevertheless, documented cases outside the collectibles industry illustrate how perceived responsibility for a consequential personal loss or grievance can become focused on an identifiable individual or institution.



On July 28, 2025, a gunman entered a Manhattan office building housing the NFL's headquarters, killing four people, injuring another, and subsequently dying by suicide. Investigators reported that the perpetrator appeared to have intended to target the NFL and had traveled from Nevada to New York before carrying out the attack. A handwritten note recovered by authorities expressed his belief that football had caused him to develop chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) and accused the NFL of concealing the dangers of football-related brain injuries. Although the perpetrator had played high school football, he had never played professionally in the NFL. In September 2025, the New York City Office of Chief Medical Examiner confirmed evidence of low-stage CTE following a postmortem examination, while cautioning that the relationship between the condition and behavioral manifestations remains an evolving area of scientific understanding.


The circumstances surrounding this attack are fundamentally different from those of a collector experiencing financial losses, and the presence of CTE should not be interpreted as an explanation for, or predictor of, violence. Nevertheless, the case illustrates an important behavioral threat assessment principle: an individual's perception of responsibility for a deeply consequential personal experience may become directed toward an organization or person with whom they have little or no direct relationship. Whether that attribution is factually supported is a separate question from the significance it may hold in the individual's grievance narrative. In the context of trading-card speculation, this raises a legitimate prospective concern about how individuals who experience substantial financial losses might interpret those losses, identify someone they believe is responsible, and potentially develop increasingly personalized grievances. The relevant concern is not the financial loss itself, but whether observable behaviors suggest movement from disappointment or resentment toward threatening conduct, fixation, preparation, or other indicators of possible targeted harm.


A related, although distinct, pattern of financially motivated hostility has been documented within the sports-betting environment. In November 2025, the NCAA reported that 36% of surveyed Division I men's basketball student-athletes had experienced social media abuse related to sports betting within the preceding year. Although sports betting and trading-card investment differ substantially in their structure, immediacy, and financial incentives, both can create circumstances in which an individual's financial expectations become tied to the performance of an identifiable athlete. These findings do not establish comparable risks within the collectibles industry, but they illustrate why the potential for financially motivated, athlete-directed grievances warrants continued examination.


This raises an important emerging research question: As athletes increasingly become financial assets within speculative collectibles markets, could some of the grievance-driven behaviors observed in sports betting begin appearing among financially invested collectors? The possibility warrants consideration, not because collectors should be viewed as inherently threatening, but because changing financial relationships may introduce new sources of perceived responsibility and interpersonal conflict. For athlete protection teams, sports organizations, and BTAM professionals, understanding the financial context of a grievance may help clarify why an individual has become fixated on a particular athlete.


Whether the concern involves a disputed grading decision, escalating customer hostility, criminal exploitation of high-value merchandise, or a grievance directed toward an athlete, the broader organizational challenge is similar: recognizing when a developing situation warrants additional attention and determining how to respond before harm occurs. The relevant risks differ, as do the appropriate interventions, but each underscores the importance of established reporting pathways, defined decision-making responsibilities, multidisciplinary coordination, and access to specialized expertise when circumstances exceed routine operational capabilities.


Operationalizing Prevention: From Recognition to Risk Management

The practical value of examining this emerging threat environment lies in translating awareness into structured prevention. Organizations cannot reasonably anticipate every theft, grievance, or act of violence. They can, however, establish processes that improve their ability to recognize developing concerns and respond appropriately. A defensible approach should begin with structured and defined interconnected functions:

 

  • First, define the feared outcome. Identify the people, assets, and operations potentially affected, distinguish criminal opportunity from targeted interpersonal harm, and determine the specific outcomes the organization seeks to prevent.

  • Second, establish reporting pathways. Ensure that employees, vendors, event personnel, and other relevant stakeholders know how to report threats, harassment, attempted security violations, and other concerning conduct without being required to independently determine dangerousness.

  • Third, triage concerns appropriately. Determine whether a report requires immediate protective action, routine security intervention, law enforcement involvement, supportive assistance, or a multidisciplinary BTAM response.

  • Fourth, develop and assess relevant information. When behavioral assessment is warranted, examine the nature and progression of the concern, relevant stressors, grievances, target-directed behaviors, evidence of preparation, and protective factors. Distinguish established facts from allegations, assumptions, and information gaps.

  • Fifth, implement proportionate interventions. Depending on the circumstances, interventions may include access-control changes, employee safety planning, grievance resolution, communication boundaries, supportive services, law enforcement coordination, or other tailored risk-reduction measures.

  • Finally, reassess and document. Evaluate the effectiveness of interventions, reassess concerns as circumstances change, document the rationale for consequential decisions, and establish appropriate criteria for case resolution or closure.


These functions should operate within clear organizational policies, lawful information-sharing practices, and established responsibilities.


What Organizational Readiness Could Look Like: The Value of Independent Expertise

For organizations operating within the trading-card and collectibles industry, effective prevention does not necessarily require building an entirely new department or maintaining a dedicated behavioral threat assessment team. Many organizations already possess valuable internal capabilities through their security, human resources, legal, customer service, and operational functions. However, the existence of these resources does not necessarily mean they are sufficiently integrated, equipped, or prepared to recognize, assess, and manage complex behavioral concerns. As the financial stakes and operational demands of the industry evolve, so too does the importance of ensuring that organizational prevention capabilities are structured, coordinated, and defensible.


This is where specialized third-party consultation can provide meaningful value. Independent behavioral threat assessment and violence prevention professionals can assist organizations in evaluating existing policies, procedures, reporting pathways, multidisciplinary response structures, and decision-making processes to identify vulnerabilities that may otherwise go unrecognized. They can help establish the operational architecture of a defensible prevention program, including clearly defined responsibilities, thresholds for escalation, information-sharing protocols, documentation expectations, and processes for monitoring and reassessing concerns. Just as importantly, external specialists can provide tailored training, exercises, and ongoing consultation to strengthen the capabilities of internal personnel without requiring organizations to develop every specialized competency in-house.


The value of this expertise may become especially apparent when organizations encounter complex, high-risk, or otherwise consequential situations. Consider a grading company managing escalating threats from a collector who believes an unfavorable evaluation resulted in substantial financial loss, an auction house confronting persistent harassment directed toward an executive, or a convention organizer responding to concerning behavior involving multiple individuals, locations, or events. These situations may exceed the experience or routine responsibilities of existing personnel, require specialized behavioral analysis, or introduce competing operational, legal, reputational, and safety considerations. Access to qualified external consultants can provide additional expertise, an independent perspective, and structured guidance to inform proportionate interventions, multidisciplinary coordination, and consequential management decisions.


Beyond responding to individual cases, independent consultation can also contribute to organizational accountability and defensibility. When prevention decisions are subsequently questioned, the issue is rarely limited to whether an organization possessed a policy or had designated personnel responsible for safety. More consequential questions may involve whether foreseeable concerns were appropriately recognized, whether relevant information was developed and considered, whether personnel had the necessary competencies, whether reasonable interventions were implemented, and whether decisions were documented and reassessed as circumstances changed. Engaging qualified specialists to evaluate programs, address identified gaps, support complex cases, and strengthen operational practices can help organizations demonstrate a deliberate commitment to reasonable prevention efforts and alignment with applicable standards of care and recognized professional practices. Such engagement does not eliminate risk, guarantee favorable outcomes, or independently establish legal compliance, but it can strengthen the quality, consistency, and explainability of organizational decisions.


The objective is not to outsource responsibility for organizational safety, but to ensure that those entrusted with that responsibility have access to the knowledge, structure, and resources necessary to fulfill it effectively. For grading companies, auction houses, marketplaces, retailers, event organizers, and other stakeholders navigating an increasingly complex collectibles environment, the strategic use of independent expertise may represent an important investment in organizational resilience, employee protection, operational continuity, and defensible violence prevention. The most effective time to establish these relationships and capabilities is not necessarily after a serious incident has occurred, but before an organization finds itself confronting circumstances for which it was never adequately prepared.


Preparing for the Next Market Correction

Prevention planning should also anticipate periods of financial instability. Retailers may face increased customer disputes, financial pressures, or concerns about unsold inventory. Grading companies may experience heightened dissatisfaction over valuations. Auction houses and marketplaces may encounter allegations of fraud or misrepresentation. Athletes and their representatives may potentially confront financialized grievances arising from disappointing performances. Organizations should establish procedures for managing these concerns before they escalate. Transparent communication, consistent policies, respectful engagement, and meaningful opportunities for resolving legitimate complaints may reduce avoidable conflict.


When behavior progresses beyond ordinary dissatisfaction into harassment, intimidation, threats, or preparation for harm, established referral and assessment pathways become especially important. Financial distress should not be treated as a proxy for dangerousness. It should be considered as one element of a broader, individualized assessment when relevant to the circumstances of a case.


The same principle applies to information-sharing. A retailer, grading company, convention organizer, or sports organization may hold only part of the information needed to understand a developing concern. Appropriate multidisciplinary collaboration can help reduce informational silos, but must be supported by privacy safeguards, factual reporting, and clear thresholds for disclosure.


Ultimately, prevention requires both environmental security and an understanding of human behavior. An organization may have excellent physical security yet remain unprepared to manage an escalating grievance directed toward an employee. Conversely, a sophisticated BTAM process cannot substitute for basic controls protecting valuable merchandise during transportation or public events. A comprehensive strategy must recognize the different risks involved and assign the appropriate tools and professionals to each.


Conclusion: The Cards May Be the Same, but the Stakes Have Changed


For those like me who grew up collecting sports cards in the 1980s and 1990s, the hobby may still evoke memories of favorite athletes, trading with friends, completing sets, and the excitement of opening a new pack. Those experiences remain meaningful, and the passion that originally defined collecting has not disappeared. Yet the marketplace surrounding those same pieces of cardboard has changed dramatically. Cards once treasured primarily for their emotional significance may now represent substantial financial assets. Their value can create opportunities for theft, introduce new operational vulnerabilities, and expose collectors and businesses to significant financial consequences. Periods of market decline may introduce additional pressures, particularly when financial losses become personalized and attributed to identifiable individuals or institutions.


For BTAM professionals, the broader lesson is not that collecting has become inherently dangerous, or that financial hardship and disappointment predict violence. Rather, it is that changing environments can create new incentives, vulnerabilities, stressors, and opportunities for harmful behavior. Understanding these developments requires more than identifying threats after they have been communicated or responding to crimes after they have occurred. It requires recognizing how economic conditions, individual motivations, perceived grievances, and observable behaviors interact within an evolving environment.


The trading-card industry provides a compelling example of why effective prevention must remain dynamic, multidisciplinary, and grounded in behavior and evidence. Because while the cards themselves may not have changed very much, what they represent to the people who collect, trade, invest in, and sometimes steal them certainly has. And as those meanings evolve, so too must our approach to prevention.


Continuing the Conversation

At Key Operational Insights, we work with organizations across industries to develop and operationalize defensible behavioral threat assessment and violence prevention programs, strengthen multidisciplinary response capabilities, and prepare professionals to recognize and manage emerging behavioral concerns. As the collectibles industry continues to evolve, we welcome conversations with grading companies, auction houses, marketplaces, retailers, event organizers, and other stakeholders interested in examining how these principles may strengthen their existing safety, security, and risk-management practices.


To learn more or schedule an introductory consultation, visit www.koipartners.net or contact info@koipartners.net.


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About the Author


Dr. Matt Talbot, PhD, LCSW, CFMHE, CCFC, CTM, is a co-founder and principal consultant of Key Operational Insights, a trusted consulting and training firm, providing comprehensive services to help individuals, organizations, companies, and agencies develop and implement actionable strategies to prevent targeted violence as early as possible. He is a subject matter expert in behavioral threat assessment, violence risk assessment, forensic mental health, and workplace violence prevention. He has helped develop violence prevention programs for Fortune 50 corporations, major healthcare institutions, and K–12 schools and created the first collegiate certificate in behavioral threat assessment and engagement at Alliant International University. Dr. Talbot previously served as President of the South Central Chapter of the Association of Threat Assessment Professionals and is a renowned public and keynote speaker. He holds a PhD in Forensic Psychology, is a clinically licensed social worker in several states, and is a Certified Threat Manager, Certified Forensic Mental Health Evaluator, and Clinically Certified Forensic Counselor.

 

References

Heritage Auctions. (2025). Michael Jordan–Kobe Bryant Logoman card brings record $12,932,000. Heritage Auctions.

Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–291.

Professional Sports Authenticator. (2026, October 23). Stolen PSA orders: What we're doing and how you can help.

Robert Edward Auctions. (2021). 1909–1911 T206 Honus Wagner, SGC VG 3.

Ryan, R. M., & Deci, E. L. (2000). Intrinsic and extrinsic motivations: Classic definitions and new directions. Contemporary Educational Psychology, 25(1), 54–67.

U.S. Department of Justice, Southern District of New York. (2026, May 28). Queens man charged in connection with armed robberies of collectible Pokémon trading cards in New York City.

U.S. Secret Service, National Threat Assessment Center. (2023). Mass attacks in public spaces: 2016–2020.


[1] Note on Illustrations: Certain images accompanying this article are AI-generated illustrative recreations inspired by the author's personal memories or representations of trading cards and collecting environments. These images are intended to support visual storytelling and should not be interpreted as original historical photographs or documentary records. Reported events, card valuations, and other factual claims are addressed separately through the article's cited sources.

 

 
 
 

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